Always interesting to read the forecast discussion from NWS for your area, they discuss the model agreement and conditions where they think the nearby forecast is more less accurate.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ILX&issuedby=ILX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1



Lots of pretty pictures turned out by the models now, predicting farther into the future with higher resolution, with generally lower confidence as we look farther into the future.   Keeps the coffee shop talk going.