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Denninger on AI
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John Burns
Posted 7/15/2026 17:54 (#11701401 - in reply to #11701044)
Subject: Volker not my hero



Pittsburg, Kansas

I don't particularly see him as a hero. I just see what he did and what the results were, which weren't pretty.

What I try to get from his actions is if there are any lessons to be learned and anything that might be relevant for the future.

And the reality is I don't know. But I am willing to look at history to see if I see anything that might be working out with similar outcomes.

Kind of "keeping my ear to the ground" so to speak.

What I want or wish to happen will make zero difference. What is going to happen is just going to happen. I just hope to be in a position to at worst not be wiped out and at best maybe do extra well monetarily. 

I'm hedging my bets by being about 50% in farmland for income producing asset, about 20% fiat cash in US dollar denominated instruments (CD's and money market accounts) and around 30% in precious metals in the form of paper claims on metal in a Canadian vault (CEF, PSLV and PHYS). Plus a smattering of other stocks and stuff mixed in there somewhere within those percentages. Those are just off the cuff figures and shift around regularly. Basically a rough guesstimate. That is an awfully lot in non productive assets and if I was 30 years old instead of 72 it would be much different. But at my age and economic situation I don't really need to take a lot of risk and if I just maintain my purchasing power easily live to 100 without worrying about money. Our farm land income essentially covers all our normal living expenses. Until this year when we purchased a rather expensive six month long world cruise we hadn't even touched any of our retirement savings. Our farm land income and SS covered all our expenses, including a lot of recreation, traveling and toy purchases.

It is a nice position to be in. If we have another Paul Volker monetary moment I may own a lot less gold and silver and more farm land. Although I don't really want to. I've got completely used to being lazy and retired. I need more land like I need a hole in my head. Just more headaches and stuff to do. But should it come about where it makes sense to do, I would do it. After being in debt for most of my adult life, having cash in the bank feels pretty good. I DO NOT WANT ANOTHER PAUL VOLKER MOMENT in the future. He is not my hero. But I do not rule out the possibility that we may see significant interest rate increases in the future. SOMETHING is going to happen as time goes on. I do not see the current government spending being sustainable. How the reconciliation ultimately plays out I have no idea. 

How I am positioned is definitely not correct for any future monetary condition if growing my net worth was my ultimate goal. Whatever happens in the future one or more of my three groups of assets will be the wrong thing to own. Hopefully at least one of them will be the right thing to own. If I can get one out of the three right, we will be just fine. That is my plan. Not to shoot the moon out and be a billionaire. But to maintain enough wealth to live out our life in the lifestyle we desire and have become accustomed to. If my asset allocation accomplishes that, I will consider it success. If there is something left over for my kids, even better.




Edited by John Burns 7/15/2026 18:23
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