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NW Illinois | So I didn't post in yesterday's thread about this since it went weirdly political as usual.
The ITC (International Trade Commission) was established by Congress in 1974. It's a non partisan system, requiring equal parts 3 Democrats and 3 Republicans. Bunch of empty seats today waiting for Senate conformation. It investigates issues of unfair practices against American companies. While you shouldn't live by Wikipedia, there is a quick read on how it works. I personally view the ITC as a pretty protectionist group towards America.
Mosaic sought relieve from them in 2020 over unfair actions of Morocco, Russia and several other countries that gave them an unfair pricing advantage in the US vs their products. ITC sided with them in late 2020, I believe post election. First countervailing duties where assigned I believe spring of 2021. Since then the percent of duties has been adjusted several times. ITC recommends duties, but it's the legislative branch that has the ultimate say. 2021-2024 are on Biden for leaving them in place, 2025-today that's Trumps tour. This announcement was only about Moroccan phosphates and not about the other countries that where assessed duties.
Now some background. Spring of 2021, duties are assessed and basically end a bunch of phosphate business with these countries into the USA. Also, China bans exports in a protectionist move during Covid. They have be relatively absent the market since 2021, only doing limited releases versus what they did pre-Covid. When China went absent our former suppliers, Morocco and Russia, found new homes for their sales. Remember some of these new homes have government bought and subsided fertilizer programs for their farmers.So they can "bid up" supply to turn it away from being profitable exporting into the USA.
Today, China has allowed some exports. Sorry, but not to save the world, but to sell at near all time high prices paid. Will China stay in the market, adding supply that was not in the global supply of the last couple years, remains to be seen. Will Morocco crank up exports with duties lifted remains to be seen.
Side note on Mosaic MES product brought up in that other post. I attended a Helena informational meeting this winter. Their fertilizer buyer rep that spoke made these comments. Mosaic has been shifting focus towards more MES type products. He believed because they know the have a finite amount of product to mine and regulation costs keep climbing. MES allows them to use more of what they mine, since they are not trying to make all premium MAP 11-52-0 and make MES at 12-40-0. It stretches their mined product. Now their has been discussion about them stopping production over high sulfuric acid pricing due to the Iran conflict. Consider this for a moment. Sulfuric acid is used in the production of dry phosphate products, so it's a cost directly to the bottom line. But also with high sulfur price, it will make a significant price discrepancy between their "premium" MES products this fall vs. any non sulfur added products like TSP 0-46-0, DAP 18-46-0, MAP 11-52-0. Epecailly if non sulfur premade imports start coming in.
Last note. This ITC thing is the same football play rerun by Corteva on 2,4D acid and finished products. ITC ruled in favor of them we are awaiting their recommendations for counter vailing duties against these foreign countries.
Edited by SimpleJoe 7/1/2026 17:41
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Phosphate imports
