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| Do enough producers and merchandisers/ speculators act on seasonals nowadays that it is getting pulled forward in the year? i.e. merchandisers/speculators buy/bid up ahead of a seasonal rally, and farmers hold expecting the seasonal rally? The highest level of supply risk exists just before the new crop gets planted. That seems to be when the market year highs have been hit lately. Makes sense to me. With todays hybrids/ machinery technology do we even have real weather risk once the crop is planted? Heard the other day Operations from 300 to 30,000 on average take 5.6 days to complete spring tillage/plant operations so the planting delay rally is a thing of the past. After its planted save for a 2012 style drought what kind of risk exists? Floods are never large enough to trim national yield. Nobody even kills the crop on here anymore.... I couldnt if i tried. I havent even seen pothole flooded in my travels. . Seems our only hope is if Israel can go cause more unrest in the world.
Edited by Lotts_Valley 6/4/2026 13:31
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Have seasonals changed?
