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| If you have paid attention, the July 4th highs (also called a dead cat bounce) have been happening earlier over the past several years. Typical now is later May - early June. This year was just earlier. Thankfully, we got involved on the other side of the world and we rallied when there was no reason to. Plenty of 25 corn in storage, 26 acres appeared strong enough to get us to 27.
Right or wrong—we sold some 27 corn during the bounce. 2026 is roughly 60% priced and the crop looks better than it sold at this point. Perhaps a bit behind 2 years ago, but a long way from failure at this point.
Is it over? Don’t know, but at this stage you should be down to FAFO bushels in the long position. IF we have a big enough problem to warrant a large move on the 26 crop— you better short feeder cattle— they will get comparatively cheap. | |
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Old crop corn
