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NW Iowa | The most recent model forecasts have ocean temperatures peaking out at an ONI around 3.0 in October and November, before a seasonal drop in temperatures heading into 2027. If realized, that would put the El Nino of 2026 at the top of recorded El Ninos in our short record history since 1950. The current record is from the 2015 Super El Nino, where the peak reached an ONI of 2.8, followed by 1997 at 2.4. The most recent Super El Nino in 2023 reached a peak of 2.1 C above normal. ONI values of at least 2.0 are generally regarded as a Super El Nino and are rare, occurring only six times since 1950 -- 1965, 1972, 1982, 1997, 2015 and 2023.
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/ag-weather-forum/blog...
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/ag-weather-forum/blog...
 (Chris-Farley-El-Nino (full).jpg)
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El Nino forecast
