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| This is a supply shock not a super cycle. Super cycles are demand driven, this is not. The last super cycle was because of massive construction in China and the US housing boom. This run up in price isn't because the economy is growing and we needs more stuff. Once the supply is figured out prices will slowly move back down.
I think you have the effect correct, but it will probably be more stagflation, especially outside the US. The official GDP of the US will hold up since we are the largest oil producer. | |
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Will we have a commodity super cycle?
