|
Northwest Iowa | I had some time to look charts over a bit this morning. Corn is just using up time. Day by day old crop is being transferred to commercial entities. Market won't go up until the farmer doesn't own it! Get rid of the old crop contracts, then corn can rally with some gusto. Dec corn is pretty impressive but-- the chart is made to fit the page and isn't quite as dynamic as it appears. Wheat has had a pretty good run but now has settled back and needs to reload some fuel (buy and hold traders). There is lots of whining about tariffs (I don't want to turn this political) but the lows were set long ago. The market knows something as the rally has been pretty impressive. It's settled back and like wheat, waiting for the correct buyers to get loaded up. Meal has been pretty strong and that really helps the bean market. April cattle- I guess my theory is strengthened a little as the April fats are running like a "big dog" into expiration. The rest of the contracts are following along as they should but as mentioned other times, the front should lead in a bull market. Usually, the June cattle have a steep discount to April. Next month we'd commonly see a good basis trade by pulling the hedges and selling cash cattle. Not apparent today. Hogs have pulled back but the star performer is usually the June hogs. May never has been very popular and lacks volume. There was a time when they tried a Nov hog but that was even worse. The seasonal high for hogs is usually mid May but there is a wider window for that. Crude oil has had a sharp spike and now has a fairly wide range that it is trading within. An old saying is that if something isn't sustainable, it will change! $50 crude was not sustainable. Murray Math would say that crude wanted to go to $100. Momentum shot it past there. Murray taught that trading participants look for the psychological objectives of 1, 10, 100, 1000 depending on the market's range. There is a lot more to it, but that is a place to start. Cotton was similar to crude- it couldn't sustain the low prices and farmers were backing away from raising it. The bear market ended and the bull began. We used to watch the CRB index as a basket of commodities. I don't see it listed. There is a Bloomberg index and a Goldman Sachs index now . Neither seems to be very popular looking at the trade volume. It is easy to see, even with the low volume, that commodities are in an uptrend. Gold and silver have settled back building a trading range . I have been told that markets spend 70% of their time in a sideways market. That seems high. Just repeating what I had been told. Copper(HG) had a very impressive move and fell back to what appears a completed head and shoulders formation. Somebody lit the fuse because the latest action has the "French Curve" look to it. Copper is a semi precious/construction metal. It is used a lot in construction(homes and plants) and manufacturing (think cars, etc). Enough for the today! Take care, fellas! | |
|
Markets
