I’ve been following these guys now a couple weeks.. this podcast summarizes the landscape very well.. as the world digests the largest crude oil disruption in history.

https://www.youtube.com/live/64aa6wT3QT4?si=eJ61bX_1_Fo-8tbd 

In the 1970s Crude oil went up 400% then doubled again.  Ask anyone who lived it what that was like.

The next major spike was Chinese growth in the 00’s culminated with the US Iraq war and the 2008 financial meltdown.  Which led to an economic crash.. then recovery.. which led to recovery in crude prices.. and another price spike.. 2011 Macondo well blowout.. Obama didn’t care.. US drought in Cornbelt etc..

until fracking squashed that.. by around 2014.

So what now?

How does the world adjust to 10% up to 20% of the supply of Crude oil now unavailable?

EVs?  No doubt.. either a little or a lot.  The US is the most insulated.. we will be supplying the rest of the world.. from our bounty.. for now.. so.. like a slow moving train wreck.. this will take months or years to unwind.. even if the straits are opened tomorrow.. as some countries WILL ADJUST after being threatened with this spike.

Crude oil has traded $150/ bbls in Asia.. and other places.

this will leave a mark.

Change is inevitably coming now.