| partimer - 4/10/2026 12:17
I don't know the capacity of ethanol production, but I don't think we have enough production for 30%.
Current US ethanol capacity is around 17 billion gallons.
Current US gasoline usage is around 137 billion gallons.
US ethanol penetration is approaching 11% or around 14.3 billion gallons with around 2.2 billion gallons as exports.
Keep in mind that fuel efficiency keeps increasing plus 6% of all car sales are EVs.. so slowly.. gasoline usage is declining in the US.. which may accelerate given the current spike in hydrocarbon prices.
Therefore, the US could grow ethanol production.. currently adding 1% would take about 500 million bushels.. we’d need to add about 12 modern 110 myn gallon /year plants.. (or expand existing.. or do a combination of both)
We have a carryout in corn of around 2.2 billion bushels which the Next WASDE will probably forecast 26/27 carryout around 2.5 billion.
So we have plenty of Corn.. we can push the current ethanol fleet.. as margins are good.. and we should shoot for nation wide E 30.. which is the ethanol sweet spot.
As a matter of policy the Nation should encourage higher octane gasoline enabling higher compression engines achieving greater fuel economy.. and let the consumer decide.. renewable ethanol E 30 blends or hydrocarbon which causes cancer and costs more.
I know which one I’m going with.
It is interesting to note that gasoline prices are cheapest here in the heartland.. the Crude and Ethanol belt.. and a diverse energy supply from diverse plants is a good stance from our nations security.. See Australia.. where the Majors shuttered 6 of their 8 refineries.. even though Australia produces Crude.. it’s shipped off to South Korea, Singapore.. and other Asain countries to be refined into products.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fu6xnDSZyHM
and now they are facing $12/gallon diesel fuel.
Its good to have options.
Edited by JonSCKs 4/11/2026 07:24
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Brazil is going to E 30.. while the US spends an additional $200 billion to secure a passage.
