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Iowa | Good question- I sure don't have all the answers but a few observations and thoughts.
Currently cash corn is around 4.25 at the local elevator. $400 rent and 15k land are not unheard of at the moment. I keep wondering what they will be if we get a sustained period of $6 corn in the future?
It sure seems like the government likes to spend and send out money. I also wonder if we won't see more professionally managed land going forward-this generally = higher rents from what I've seen. Trend sure seems to be renting more acres for a slimmer margin for the tenant. I have seen a few guys get in a bind financially the past few years and did sale-leasebacks on some ground. Thing is-the buyers paid cash. There are more than a few land buyers in my area with a significant amount of money. Most of these buyers don't farm. 1031 money out of the Des Moines area or business owners. I don't really like what all I see going on but what I like doesn't matter.
All that said-you still have to be able to make the payments and that can be easier said than done in certain situations. Only you know what you can afford.
If you can swing it and hold on to it- I can't help but think it will look good in 40-50 years. I'm 40 so I didn't witness the 80's. I have seen some guys get in trouble buying land though with borrowed money. I think what got them was they tried to build Rome in a day. If they bought maybe a 1/4 or 1/2 of what they did they would probably still have it.
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Land outlook
