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JonSCKs

Posted 3/22/2026 14:07 (#11593181)
Subject: An honest assessment of where we are.. not all doom and gloom.

So I’m gonna try to give a balanced viewpoint of where we are.

For what we are going through.. we’re in the best position possible. We just harvested a record crop. We have an extra BILLION bushels of corn vs a year ago.. we have an up and running ethanol fleet which we can push.. and the US farmer is capable of converting this SURPLUS to fuel.. feed.. etc.

So it’s time to capitalize on this investment.. unleash E 15 nationwide to ease our country’s critical energy needs.

We also have a Surplus of oilseeds which can be processed into Biodiesel.. ditto above.

20 years ago.. the US produced a bit over 5 million bbls per day.. today we almost produce three times that amount a bit over (edit correction.. still under.. but close to) 14 million bbls per day.

However, Iran currently controls the straits of Hormuz where 20% of the World’s Crude Oil passes and 30% of the World’s fertilizer passes. Fortunately for the US farmer.. “alot” not all but “a lot”.. is already booked or applied.. however, we will take more.. The concerns are longer term for side dressing.. and this fall sowing winter wheat.. etc. This fertilizer “crisis” ain’t going away quickly.. any.. time.. soon.

Thanks to the Ethanol boom.. most soils are in great shape.. we busted a record yield last year.. without really trying. A lot of soils with 5% organic matter will churn out about 100 lbs of Nitrogen.. pro bono (lucky dogs) the rest of us.. are near domestic suppliers of synthetic fertilizers.

We’ve probably over applied phosphate.. and have “enough in the soil tank” to cruise on reduced rates. So for the Wall Street types reading this..

We don’t have to lift this 747 off the tarmac.. we’re already cruising at 35,000 ft.. and can dial back the engines.. while still coasting.. “a long ways.” Does that mean we won’t have “issues?” No.. but.. we’re in as good of shape as we could be.

So going forward..

It will take time and resources including our Allies to crack open the straits. The straits being closed will do to Asia what Russia / Ukraine war has done to energy prices in Europe.. with Crude Oil trading over $150/ bbls in Asia.. and probably headed higher.. that will.. may.. drag WTI with it..

https://youtu.be/Y7d22khqPDc?si=QLRD0kfQh_SPSRYM

Opening the Hormuz straits can be done.. it will be done.. it just won’t occur next week. In a way.. maybe a more thoughtful approach would be closing Iranian shipments which must occur first.

The Saudi’s have a pipeline to the Red Sea.. now running.. there’s also a pipeline south of UAE.. as well as Iraq shipping north through Turkey. The US can.. with its partners Canada and Mexico increase hydrocarbon exports of Crude and finished products as well as ethanol. Plus if Ukraine can get its crops to markets.. there are ways to get Persian Gulf hydrocarbons around the straits.

The Trump administration has eased restrictions on both Russia’s shadow fleet as well as Iranian sanctioned crude.. some questioned the wisdom of this.. as Iran is earning multiples of what Obama gave them now. The Western Allie’s should probably reimpose these sanctions to squeeze bad actors economically..

and offer our Allie’s Western Energy and LNG.

If we do control Venezuela.. the largest Reserves on the planet.. but infrastructure is in a shambles.. However, not far away sits Trinidad.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-weighing-venezuela-offshore-investments-worth-billions-dollars-ceo-tells-2026-02-05/

with fertilizer plants to convert Natural Gas as well as the possibility to export LNG (I’d assume) either way.. getting Venezuela back on line.. through Trinidad makes sense.

However, this will take time. 2027 at the earliest..

If we were not at war..

Corn would be trading at $3.50
Crude at.. $55
Natural Gas at.. $3 mcf or less..

We’re probably already at war elevated prices.. with a healthy war premium which will come out at some time in the future..

However, we will probably stay elevated “higher.. for longer.”

We need to harbor our resources.. lucky us.. our HRW Wheat is currently a little dry.. on my farm.. the final nitrogen application on dryland will probably get skipped.. however, the elevators still have “a lot” of carry over bushels from last years big crop.

The government could probably tariff tax (it’s not.. but speaking Trump’s language here) the “war profits” from converting $3.50 mcf natural gas into a $10 mcf fertilizer world. Those profits should be redirected to the users.. to ease the pain.. imho. for The betterment of the human condition.

We will be able to ramp up ethanol.. feed livestock.. grow enough wheat for bread etc..

We should add the pipeline to Trinidad.. the gulf coast states should build the infrastructure AROUND the Straits.. to take away the chokehold the Iranians currently have.. which will take YEARs.. however, until THAT happens.. Iran can choke the world's energy supplies.. they are building drones in their garages.. the only safe way to defeat that is GO AROUND the Straits.

The US should reimpose sanctions on bad actors Russia and Iranian Crude.. and intercept shipments en route to be redirected to Allie’s.. see Venezuela. And starve Iran.. and Russia back to the negotiating table.

China has three times the reserves the US does but is reliant upon energy imports.. The US should work with China.. stay away from Tiawan.. we’ll ensure you get energy.. to feed refineries in the region.

We control OPEC now.. if Iran closes the straits.. it closes it for EVERYONE.

Not gonna get solved this week.. but.. a pathway forward.

There ya go. Fire away.

Edit.. I hate spell check.