AgTalk Home
AgTalk Home
Search Forums | Classifieds (48) | Skins | Language
You are logged in as a guest. ( logon | register )

Market and iran
View previous thread :: View next thread
   Forums List -> Market TalkMessage format
 
JonSCKs
Posted 3/18/2026 09:32 (#11588976 - in reply to #11588711)
Subject: Pipelines around Hormuz.


This article gives good details about two pipelines installed as backups to the Straights.. as well as their limitations.

https://www.enr.com/articles/62677-hormuz-bypass-infrastructure-was-sized-for-a-short-disruption-this-is-not-that

 The U.S. government has moved to offer political risk insurance to shipping lines through the U.S. Development Finance Corporation—the same convoy-and-escort logic the U.S. Navy employed during the Iran-Iraq War, when Kuwaiti tankers were reflagged and escorted through the channel. It worked then. The threat environment is considerably more complex now.

What the crisis is demonstrating, with unusual clarity, is that the infrastructure gap between “partial bypass” and “full alternative” was always a choice, not an inevitability. The Petroline and ADCOP were deliberately sized to manage short disruptions, not replace the strait. For 40 years, that was a defensible bet.

The record suggests planners assumed Iran shared an interest in keeping the strait open and its drone technology was too imprecise—or too scarce—to systematically target dispersed port infrastructure. Both assumptions have been invalidated simultaneously.

The question energy infrastructure planners will face when this crisis resolves is whether the original bet can still be defended or whether the engineering calculus around Hormuz bypass capacity needs to be fundamentally reconsidered.

It is of interest to note that so far.. the only country who has offered to help the US is Ukraine.. “you don’t have the cards” fame.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPe3NgY-1R0

We’re currently using very expensive defense systems to shoot at very cheap and numerous Iranian drones.  The Ukrainians sunk the Russian Black Sea navy with Drones.. while developing defense systems.. on the fly.. while under attack.. for Pennie’s on the dollar which work as well.. or better.. then the major powers.

I don’t know what infrastructure would exists.. Railroads.. trucking.. etc to get fertilizers past the straights.. if Ukraine can ship wheat out.. certainly the gulf can get bulk commodities like Urea also out.

Maybe we can start to see how this plays out. 

Top of the page Bottom of the page


Jump to forum :
Search this forum
Printer friendly version
E-mail a link to this thread

(Delete cookies)