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Latimer Iowa | We can use your numbers as everyone will figure shrink and storage costs different.
You sold your beans for 11.42.
You could have sold your beans for cash for $10 at harvest. The March board is up $1.54 since harvest. The board is no more or less risky then unproved grain in a bin.
You could have sold the beans for $11.54 by using the board.
By your numbers you lost 12 cents.
Scenario 4 is less speculative than you putting unpriced beans in a bin at harvest. At harvest you have already invested all your expenses and the crop insurance prices are set so guarantee is also set. It is actually MUCH less speculative to sell ahead if you lock in your corresponding costs, or as many as possible, when you sell the grain on the board the first time. Don’t lift those hedges until crop insurance sets guarantees. Set your land price, know your equipment costs, buy some fuel, buy some chems, seed and know your margin a year ahead of time. And then let the government come in and offer heavily subsidized price supports (95% ECO) to protect you from getting burned.
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