Green Acres Guy - 3/11/2026 15:08

The price increase since harvest is just a "paper" improvement. Could have been captured just by buying and selling contracts on the board. Its the same thing to play the board as to put unpriced bushels in a bin and hope for price improvement.

I know the O.P. is stirring the pot, so I will do the same, but is post is absolutely wrong (on the 40% annualized return) and bragging about how the bin making him money. That is a terrible thought process for any young guy looking at this board for actual farm profitability/business instead of emotional selling. Filling multiple "old bins" all over the place is not free or time efficient in harvest either, and the grain has to be handled again...

In North Iowa 2025 crop soy:

Scenario 1, 10,000 bushels. Sell out of field and reown on the board. No opportunity cost of interest on money spent on a bin or the beans in the bin, no double handling, no shrink.

On Oct 1 2025 the march 26 soy board was at $10.46 Today the march 26 board was $12.00. So it went up $1.54. This gain could be captured with a few 10ths of a cent in brokage fees.

Cash price for soybeans was 9.82 last fall. add the $1.54 gets you an $11.36 price. or $113,600.

Scenario 2, bin it and sell today.
March board 12.00 basis of -.55 sale price of $11.55

2% shrink . -20 per bushel
6% interest/opportunity cost on beans for half a year is -.30 per bu
double handling/trucking is -.15 per bushel
cost of bin, utilities, opportunity cost of bin. -.20 per bushel
Deductions of -.85 per bushel for a sale price of $10.70 or $107,000

So sell at harvest and buy on paper have $113,600
or bin it and sell cash now and have $107,000

In this years scenario the bin return is negative .66 per bushel or $6600 bucks less.

Scenario 3 is to forward contract, either on the board or end-users, and have a price established and a plan before the grain is harvested. On a rally similar to now, fall 2026, fall 2027 soybeans can be sold if desired. Forward selling is actually less speculative then putting grain in a bin with hopes and prayers for a price appreciation. It enables you to lock in your production costs, land cost, etc. Margin calls are irrelevant because the price goes up, and it goes down. Margin flows both ways.

Scenario 4, you can play both sides with no more risk then putting unpriced grain in a bin with no plan, actually less as there is no spoilage, interest, shrink to eat... Sell on the board ahead on time. Nov 2025 soy traded a buck higher in fall 24 then the 2025 insurance levels established in Feb. Sell ahead on the board, get 1.00 on the front side, lift board positions when crop insurance March 1st, comes out and locks in your bottom. Then the upside is open. Scalp $1.00 from the board, sell it at harvest with no extra costs, reown it on paper if you are that optimistic, and actually have a price of $12.36 per bushel this year or $123,600 jingling in your pocket. With just selling ahead on the board, if the price goes against you, yes you pay some margin, but that comes back when the grain is turned into cash.

Take the the wife out to a nice seafood dinner with your extra $16,600 bucks the messing with any "old bin" you can find.

We have bins, but grain has a price when it goes into the bin, and I am actively pricing 2026/2027 crop beans/corn at profitable levels.

Edit, missed a decimal.