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East Central SD | Maizing Pete showed the charts a few times probably 5-10 years ago. Basically 7 or 8 years out of 10 it pays to fwd sell vs gbs.
What gets missed in that assessment is the amount actually gained each year. If you fwd sell you have the ability to gain the carry over the gbs guys. Otherwise you are actually selling for about the same price each year. Now assume you pick up on avg $.25 each year with the carry that is about what Maizing Pete's charts showed as the advantage to fwd sell. That is all great until you hit the 2 out of 10 years. In those years you give up dollars, not cents.
The best marketing strategy is actually a hybrid approach if you can pull it off. Forward sell when the markets are way above avg but when the markets are depressed be slow to sell as the only downside is in giving up the carry.
I'm more of a gbs guy and I'm more than confident I'm significantly ahead over the years doing what I do. Just in the last bull market I had 3 years of $6+ corn. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe the fwd seller would have had one year for sure and maybe a second. The first year of a major bull move you can miss out on $2-3 dollars pretty easy. Obviously there are ways to protect those moves on the board but I don't think too many guys pull that off. The other advantage to gbs is the deferral of sales. Deferring income has tax benefits and helps me build working capital. | |
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Storing Soybeans from Oct 2025 to Today
