Back in the dark ages at the University of MO we compared timed selling throughout the year of physical sales with forward marketing. Timed sales pretty much always won. You can't predict prices. I fight my Dad selling too much physical at any one time. I know several people locally who used to do a lot with futures and options, and were even kind of doing some consulting, that have just pretty much went to timed sales. Futures and options strategies can get really expensive.