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Crop insurance options
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Mike_N
Posted 3/5/2026 07:28 (#11573761 - in reply to #11573705)
Subject: RE: Crop insurance options


Michigan
Yes, I did my own analysis and then asked AI. I was trying to model the SCO/ECO crop insurance products as a put option, which is a bit challenging as unlike a real put option where price is the only stochastic variable with crop insurance both price and yield are random variables. So, the analysis gets a bit complicated... I got AI to run a monte carlo analysis of the insurance options . I then had AI write up all its analysis in a white paper along with some sensitivity analysis scenarios in an appendix. Overall I was impressed by how well AI did on this task--I've played with it in the past and not had good results. In this particular case it was the equivalent of having a smart intern from a good college.

Bottom line, AI recommended 75% RP, SCO, and 95% ECO. In my case, there was only a few $/acre difference in cost between the 75% and 80% RP levels so I ended going with 80%.

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