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NW Iowa | DTN
While U.S. stocks stand estimated at a seven-year high, USDA's total world estimate in January was an 11-year low. And, what's even more noteworthy is the distribution of corn supplies around the globe, with the U.S. and China being the owners of over 80% of world reserves. Taking the U.S. and China inventories out of the equation, the remaining world ending stocks ratio relative to demand in those countries sits at 8.6%, the lowest since 2001.
Essentially, world corn-production expansion outside of the U.S. and China (yes, that includes Brazil and Argentina) has not matched the growth of demand in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic. The jury is still out on where South American production will land in 2026. The January USDA forecast called for the second-largest combined crop on record for Brazil and Argentina, yet the production deficit (production minus domestic consumption) for countries other than the U.S. and China is expected to be roughly 2.6 bb, the largest in 10 years.
I'm still thinking we need something major to even get a .20 bump in corn.
SA is dry for the corn planting, with not enough banked to see it through.
I'm starting to wonder if i should just sell a bunch of old crop.
I keep thinking we could get a small rally, but nothing is getting us
past $4.20 cash corn. It will run between 4.08- 4.21. Briefly hit $4.28 cash and should have sold on that probably.
Get to $4.50 on the board, and they slide the basis.
My target is $4.35 cash, thinking we are still range bound and it's not going to happen.
We are now running around $74 for oil
$3.20 for diesel at the harbor and $2.48 for gas.
I thought maybe ethanol would see a bump and they would bid to leverage some sales at the E plant.
But corn is going down....
Any thoughts
Edited by Massey1155 3/4/2026 08:31
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Corn supplies around the globe
