| nks - 3/2/2026 20:01
There is zero chance it moves the needle.
… if the war and the straights of Hormuz are reopened tomorrow.
Checked with fertilizer guy today.. no nitrogen offered. None. *** at a price I was willing to pay *** (since this thread is getting traction this morning)
Yes the bigs will take advantage of this.. no it will not be resolved.. this year probably.
3 of the top 10 suppliers use the straight.. other major suppliers are China, Russia and Canada. European markets depends on Natty Gas.. for power generation.. after being shut off by Russia.. replaced by.. you guessed it the Middle East.. aka Qatar.. et all.
Which will probably drive up costs.. limiting European fertilizer suppliers. Which will increase the scramble.
Good news if you have your N on.. locked in.. or on the farm..
If not? Good luck.
edit to clarify.. yes I think right now it’s hype.. but.. also believe we’ll only get about 67% of our needs.. or whatever.. no DOUBT.. less than we’ll want.. as.. the majors will export it out to others.. and China may not share.. so..
???
Does Trump cut off Nitrogen exports from the US.. how does Canada.. Russia.. China.. respond???
Where does Brazil get its needs??
now are you starting to see Pandora’s box?
https://youtu.be/oN_c6N9SKDE?si=d36vtOQJPNYeufHI
Edited by JonSCKs 3/3/2026 06:39
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These nitrogen prices will remove how many corn acres?
