East Central South Dakota | If you look at basis price action in 2024 and crop movement and the lack of urgency in domestic buying you could make an argument that USDA under reported the 2024 crop thus changing the carryout for 2025. So far, in 2025 you see the same lack of urgency to cover cash needs domestically, sluggish basis and somewhat narrow trading range. Bottom line is we are in a surplus situation in grains, and the market sees no reason to bounce out of the trading channels. Surpluses have to be put on sale and exported. Domestic use is verily static number. The market is doing what it needs to---creating demand to meet supply through attractive price. There is just a lot of supply to chew through. I believe in corn we keep exporting a lot of supply as we are just about the only game in town. Exports will get supply down to manageable levels where it is more sensitive to weather problems. If we get some excessive heat and dryness with manageable inventories, we could see a decent run. Soybeans have more of a two-hemisphere production and are just a tough one to outguess. If you look at the fundamentals on soybeans I don't understand the recent rally-----that being said, last two years the fundamental traders are flat pancakes on the marketing road. |
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