Curious what the action/reaction guys are thinking now. If I have it right, this chart is basically what NEIAAG posted awhile back (edit: not sure why NAT killed the resolution so bad when I uploaded it. it was under the image size restriction when I uploaded it).

After the Jan report I briefly accepted my fate of low prices and sold a fair amount of grain on the futures near the low after that report. Then I bought it back (break-even) very shortly thereafter when we didn't get the follow through selling I thought we might see with such a bearish report.

We've gained a fair amount of that days loss back since then but I'm still bearish overall. I don't see a great reason to not call this an opportunity to take a fair amount of risk off the table. On the action/reaction side of things I don't think it's uncommon for price to pull back up and re-test recent sellers before going where it needs to go. I assume price isn't negating what NEIAAG expected unless it decisively breaks not only $4.55 but also the $5.05 range?

If you want to pin a fundamental reason on it, I just don't see a path for this deal with Iran to make our worldwide or domestic grain situation at all tight from a carryout perspective. I feel like we need more cattle on feed than we have now to help the domestic demand side out.

Anyway, the recent rally kind-of feels like a gift to me. What say you?

(ZC1!_03_01_26 (full).jpg)

ZC1!_03_01_26 (full).jpg (46KB - 3 downloads)