 39.48, -82.98 | Well, let's call it daily. In truth, it's a "time series" that I created in Excel, using its random number generator and a few defined parameters. Background: When I was a teenager I became enamored with technical analysis, charting, the whole shebang. Sophomore year of college, I was exposed to efficient market theory and that whole shebang. The discussion on the market's "random walk" put a hole in my plan to reap great fortunes from my charting prowess. If, of course, markets did in fact incorporate everything known to mere mortals and move randomly. Eager to test this -- and lacking the millions of bucks others have spent trying to find an edge -- I went about building a spreadsheet in Visicalc, which I called my Random Market Generator. Think of it as a Turing Test for charting. If you can't immediately distinguish between a real market series and a randomly generated one, then that's strong evidence that markets move randomly. And those chart formations are formed at random, too. Our efforts to find trends, reversals, retracements, etc. are our minds' efforts to find order amid chaos. Market pareidolia, if you will. I suspect many/most on here will disregard the foregoing, such is the will to believe. But I hope that some will take it to heart and -- who knows? -- maybe in a quiet moment will create their own random market series in a spreadsheet. |