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Kansas City, Missouri | Napoleon’s invasion of Russia always reminds me of the BTO farmer scams you hear about every few years. Looks unstoppable at first, everyone’s impressed by the size of the operation, and from the outside it all screams “success.”
Napoleon rolls in with 600,000 troops. BTO rolls in with brand new iron, rented acres as far as you can see, and money flying around like it grows on trees. Banks, landlords, and neighbors all assume the guy must know what he’s doing because look how big he is. That’s mistake number one.
Napoleon ignores reality, distance, logistics, weather and assumes things will just work out because they always have before. Same deal with the scammy BTO types, thin margins, MAXED out leverage, optimistic yield numbers, and a hope and pray marketing plan. As long as prices stay up and lenders keep extending, it looks fine.
Then reality hits. Russia burns the crops and winter shows up. For the BTO, it’s a price drop, a bad crop, higher interest, or one banker finally saying “no.” Suddenly there’s no cash flow, equipment starts disappearing, bills don’t get paid, and everyone else is left holding the bag. Landlords don’t get rent, dealers get stuck, and neighbors wonder how it all collapsed so fast.
Napoleon limps out of Russia with a fraction of what he started with. Same with these operations, what looked like a farming empire turns out to be smoke and mirrors once the easy conditions are gone. Lesson’s the same in both cases: size doesn’t equal strength, and ignoring fundamentals eventually gets exposed. History just happened faster in 1812 than it does in modern ag. | |
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Russia, Napoleon and BTO Farms
