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S Illinois | Keep in mind this post from this summer when commercials were also thought to be very short. Dec 25 corn lost basically 35 cents in the next 45 days. Sept 25 corn also followed the same pattern. Basis didn't gain anything close to that? No one is perfect when predicting price, but when a single point of information is what one is basing that on then history needs to be looked at. He is correct that COT show that commercial are 350k less contracts short than last Jan. But that doesn't mean the stocks aren't there as was mentioned, hedged bushels are included in that number. It says nothing in regards to physical stocks.
https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=1206723&posts=...
"Marketing patterns will & should change as we await the disaster assistance. Commercial guys own damn little corn. "
"As astute marketers, we do have options....big carries in corn right now & wheat for that matter. Hedge it in the deferred months if your uncomfortable & wait for better basis opportunity in new crop. Old crop should see much higher flat price due to basis increases as we move into the lean supply available over the next 60 days."
Edit: These posts remind me a lot of the old Jeremy Frost posts.
Edited by w1891 1/23/2026 14:38
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Commercial corn ownership
