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| Short term response would be to be patient & look for basis appreciation ....if basis doesn't squeeze ownership out, the the CH/CK spread will continue to narrow to smoke out what commercial ownership there is in the deferred months. Weather premiums certainly are in front of us now. River has draft issues currently along with ice, thus there is a good deal of rail getting pointed toward the gulf to help keep up, which in turn should strain domestic rail. Futures would catch my attention if we were able to get a pop back to 4.50 area, but we've already seen that for some time, so not sure farm response will be that great??? I'd get real interested if we were able to see CH in the 4.57-4.62 range, regardless of what basis is doing at the time. | |
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