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What % is a realistic guess on 20 year ROI for 401K/stock market ?
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Reality speaks
Posted 1/23/2026 10:58 (#11521839 - in reply to #11521257)
Subject: RE: What % is a realistic guess on 20 year ROI for 401K/stock market ?


n. Illinois
Join me in that quest too. I am currently spread out amongst value oriented mutual funds with roughly 60% in the stock market and 40% bonds/cash. I struggle everyday thinking how much do you leave in the stock market?

Cash is only returning 3.4 to 3.9% and I don't believe the governments claim of inflation is only 2.7% or whatever it is. I know for a fact that largest component of the CPI (housing 25% or more of the CPI) is a made up number. A survey of homeowners as to what they think their home would rent for. You have to be kidding me Homeowners by definition are not renting and would have no idea as to what the rental market is. Yet this make believe number accounts for more the CPI change than anything else. So its so easy to game the final number if the largest component is something no one can actually measure. It would be too easy to actually get rental rates from the real rental market or measure the change in home values based upon what they are actually selling for.

My Mutual funds are all value oriented and therefore I am underinvested in the 7 mega stocks that have driven the S&P 500 for the last decade and my performance reflects that.

The best investment advice I have ever read is this. We don't really care what the performance is in an up market; because a rising tide raises all boats. What you want to know is who is going to lose you the less amount when the tide goes out and everyone loses value.

Good luck and do not put all your eggs in one basket.

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