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What % is a realistic guess on 20 year ROI for 401K/stock market ?
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Jim
Posted 1/23/2026 00:47 (#11521380 - in reply to #11521026)
Subject: RE: What % is a realistic guess on 20 year ROI for 401K/stock market ?


Driftless SW Wisconsin
IMHO the stock markets have changed drastically in the past few years.

P/E ratios are ridiculous. Stocks are a house of cards that is held together by the financial industry. Look at Tesla. Institutions can't afford to let it drop to a reasonable price earnings ratio. Why did they give musk his big paycheck? What earnings potential does Tesla have? And when? How can buying Tesla stock make any sense at all with it's current P/E ratio of 288??? That is just an extreme example but just one of many.

Stock prices are so out of sync with corporate earnings (if any) that it's turned stocks and even index funds into a casino. Or maybe a game of musical chairs.

At some point a portion of the population will realize that the emporer has no clothes, pull out and start a downward slide back to stock prices that are more based on corporate earnings than the smoke and mirrors hyping stock prices in recent years.

Why do you think Bill Gates puts his money in farmland?

My 20 year stock market ROI would start with a minus sign.

Edited by Jim 1/23/2026 00:56
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