Nebraska aka the boondocks | Nobody is 100% confident, nor should they be. A lot of folks lived the disease yield reduction effects this year. From north platte to Kearney Nebraska my banker told me corn yields flat to minus 45 bushel an acre from average, that is what they are seeing and more particular, minus 10-25.
Beyond backyarditis, this seemed to be the case in many areas. But aside from farmer observations what about the analysts? They seemed pretty dead set on 183, despite hints it should be lower, but since nobody really wants to stick their head out, that seemed to be the news for quite some time. The market during the shutdown and right before this report, seemed like it wanted to go up. I don’t trade, but I asked several weeks ago, why anyone would assume 183. The analysts are awash with data. They probably go over to the point of insanity, and yet, they were caught off guard. I paid my last margin call in 2004, never to be struck by lighting again. My view, why throw myself into something, only to have the usda launch me out of a hot dog cannon. May as well give my cash to Warren and go to sleep at night.
These reports are like bill Murray’s ground hog day. Smash the clock, throw yourself off the ledge, and every day there you are again talking in circles |
lost credibility in reports
