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S Illinois | They are likely to be very close over the whole corn belt. Individual counties will have larger variations. But an analysis was done a few years ago now on that very subject.
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2017/11/comparing-nass-and-rma-cou...
"For the 932 counties with all FSA, NASS, and RMA corn yields between 2009 and 2015; RMA yields on average exceed NASS yields by 3.4 bushels. These 932 counties are relatively large corn producing counties."
I don't have any reason to believe that there has been a large swing the other way. Primarily because any time the yields are over reported, ending stocks are drawn down and carried forward. So a 100mb miss one year in ending stocks is carried forward and those supposed misses compound. So if that hypothetical miss is 100mb the next year all of the sudden it's a 200mb miss. It would only take another year or two on top of that and basis and board price would be screaming that the grain isn't there. | |
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