|
S Illinois | That Sept 1 based ending stocks number is about the most concrete number USDA has. I would have to go back and look, but I don't remember the previous years ending stocks being changed in a Jan production report following the Sept 1 stocks survey. And the trend is your friend when it comes to yield changes. Demand and acreage would be the first to be changed if ending stocks show a reason for the S&D to be changed. The data doesn't seem to support one years yield being a makeup or buffer against the next. USDA uses demand and especially feed as the category that is changed to meet what the ending stocks dictate.
My bullish guess would be that we see a 3-4 bu 2025 yield decrease with feed coming down and ethanol and exports bumped up a little. So net we get a 1.9-1.95 carryout. Give me a big crop and even bigger usage as that allows for a quicker tightening with the next weather issue. | |
|
|
National Production Report - question for w1891, ClaySEIA, Zenfarm, IN555, others
