|
| Because it’s always the same pattern. And yes it hasn’t hit the bottom line a long time but we live in a reality of migrating between extremes. Whether that’s going from the brightest time of day at noon to the darkest time of day at midnight. Or going from the coldest time of year In Winter to the hottest in the summer. Or fluctuating between extreme right politics to extreme left politics. Or in economics between times of booms and bust. Which is pretty evident in commodities such as crude or grains. Feast or famine. High interest rates to low interest rates
And not hitting a trend line for 25 years, imo, increases the probability of hitting that trend line in the future.
But that bottom trend line in 3 years would hit 3$ copper. Last time we hit 3$ copper was 2022. Which was just four years ago
Also copper is great indicator of the economy because it’s used in nearly everything from houses to cars to computers and 2022 and 2023 weren’t great for the stock market, and I’ve been saying, along with more notable names like Michael burry, that the stock market is due for a major correction. And you look at copper price, see it’s at ath of 6$ and maybe it heads up to 7 or even higher, and one could reasonably infer that we are def in the “boom” phase. And that 3$ bottom price point isn’t all that far out of the realm of possibility given, as I pointed out above, was hit a mere 4 years ago
The cheap commodities/ low interest are a result of the bust cycle which is often caused by expensive commodities and high interest rates.
When things are good people tend to think that times will always be good and they over build and over spend which leads to bidding prices up which then results in things being to expensive and too abundant causing the bust as margins erode that then creates cheap prices and better margins and the cycle continues
In my humble opinion
Also that pattern tends to lead to a lower implied volatility meaning premiums get cheap and the market makers get to collect on all the options they sold which then leads to them buying them back which then leads to a spike in implied volatility which they then sell options on because the premiums are expensive and the cycle repeats | |
|
Copper price
