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Make this pencil out
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Reality speaks
Posted 1/5/2026 20:23 (#11498604 - in reply to #11498117)
Subject: RE: Make this pencil out


n. Illinois
It doesn't pencil out. Losses going into 2026 assuming 50-50 C-SB rotation is a loss of roughly $150,000/yr or $450,000 over the 3 years. and this is based upon only the cash costs and assuming that you can financed the full operating needs out of cash (which at the end of 3 years you will have a lot less). So you have $450,000 less and wore your equipment out faster, I bet we can find more than one taker too at that rate.

Now a unique strategy to make it work would be to get the lease sign and then get the first crop in the ground before you pay the rent. File Bankruptcy before harvest and force the landlord to take a much lower rent as part of the bankruptcy plan as all contracts are renegotiable in bankruptcy. Need an excellent attorney to get this done so you might end up just making enough to pay him the legal fees. and you will never rent it again after the three years is up. This is what you see at the end of the boom cycle, decisions divorced from all financial reality. Buckle up folks the ride is just getting interesting.
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