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IN | I’m not old enough I admit to experience the big grain embargo Carter threw on or have lived through the 80s. Won’t comment about what was right, wrong, forward, back, left, etc on any of it because I lack the knowledge or experience. I was there for the 08-14 rise and plummet of markets that were still more seasonally based or fundamentally based. As well as the run up of 19-22 time frame.
That being said, I’ve shoveled almost $2 corn and jumped up and down when we sold $8 beans because they had gone up 20¢. But those were times when you could hopefully rely on a seasonal market with its normal rises and runs and plan accordingly. Today’s marketing certainly doesn’t follow these rules I’d say at least 50% of the time. Yes we trade S&D numbers and reports but what does a guy do about these $1 swings each way over a media post, threat, phone call, waking up on wrong side of the bed, type directives?
I didn’t go to a prestigious school to learn ag marketing or commodity price management or even farm management. I feel like my time was better spent on the farm going to a community college and earning an Associate degree in ag as a backup. What I learned about marketing was from my dad and talking to grain merchants and reading and listening up on my own. All these things though are taught from a seasonal, fundamental, S&D market perspective and not a wild card market.
How as farmers and marketers do we get a better handle on which way these things go? I could sell 25% old crop this morning and make or break a dollar by noon tomorrow! It just seems things were much simpler when the future Dec contract might move 15-30¢ in a year vs -.30 in the morning and +.12 by close. Sure makes applying old logic to new problems an issue. But, does anyone have new logic to apply to new problems? Sell when you’re profitable and move on?
Just interested in thoughts and opinions on how to handle this volatility. I know buying options can cover a guys rear but I’m not real familiar with it and it just seems like one more thing to go wrong in an already risky venture. | |
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Trying to market in an unmarketable market?
