farmerbk - 1/2/2026 16:17

for better or worse, they are a stated formulation, repeatable and have statistical confidence
they are also a snapshot in time of what the conditions are for the yield estimates that are published throughout the year.

The yields estimated at the beginning of the year are able to be estimate within a relatively narrow range based on the data USDA provides. This has been extensively studied. We may quibble about if the last certain number of years should have more or less influence but how the calculation will be made seems solid

I don't always like how it all turns out, but would rather USDA be making the estimates than private forecasters that may not be willing to share their methodologies, or have reasons of their own to report a number

cheers
bryon