| JC STONE - 12/23/2025 09:17
555 made a couple points down below thats got me thinking
The 2024 low in corn is huge. Due to inflation maybe price doesn't take it out for the foreseeable future. JP maybe price won't decline as dire as you expect
Demand or inflation aren't going away any time soon. We could test that low , however I doubt we break it.
Hi JC,
Thanks. I never saw the thread I guess. I don't expect anything other than for the energy to be expended in one way shape or another. That said it is rather worriesome when the minor structures in price start supporting a vertical conclusion. They could fail and if that occurs then we will likely expends the energy horizontal. That's why I have been adamant that you cannot have both an extended horizontal price period and achieve the extremely low prices of the failed swings. It will be one or the other. That said, I will bring up the old adage from years gone by....would you rather have your hand squeezed in a vice for a long period of time or just hit it with a sledge hammer - both instances releasing the same amount of energy on your hand? 5 years of horizontal at the current input structure and prices being the vice -versus- one painful bleeding out from being hit with the sledgehammer and let the healing begin. My guess is everyone will have a different preference . But generally speaking, major pivots do not form horizontally. They form in dramatic fashion and while not 100pct, price returning to test a failed swing is likely the highest probability occrance that exists on price charts. Covid was assigned the reason for alot of the major pivots that occured in the past....cattle, oil etc. Inversely, the inability of the entities that did not confirm there pivots, will suffer the consequences of that failure. Those being most of the grains, cotton etc. The event does not matter, only the energy expressed does.
It will be interesting to see how it all turns out.
Take care
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Inflation and the Grains JP
