| JC STONE - 12/13/2025 10:42
Never said I didn't want things explained , a picture is worth a thousand words, adds to the explaination , thats all I was saying.
Thanks for the visuals ,so now can we have a discussion?
Okay so currently we are storing energy, how long could this go on? The tricky part is knowing when the storage is complete. Is it complete at the recent high or 12 or 13 dollars. Or is it time in a sideways market that completes it. How do you know?
Hi JC,
I should apologize. You didnt say you didn't want an explanation, but based on previous exchanges, I came to that conclusion. I could have been wrong. I remember a few weeks ago you posted a weekly corn chart and I think you said something like "it looks good to me". I made a post and ended up not posting but I wanted to know why it looks good to you. What do you see? What gives you confidence in that set of lines? Why did you choose those pivots? A picture might be worth a thoasand words, but the meaning of the picture won't necessarily be the same from the same pic. People see different things, some right, some wrong, some that they believe is right, that is in reality wrong - just the remember the one time when it was right - but forget the times that it was wrong. Like the MACD. People use it and it works for them and for sure there are times when its right. But if you put it up against hardcore analysis, its an huge looser. Yet people use it because it was right....."once".
IMHO, one of problems we have is that the Andrews rules and I suppose the other charting disciplines fall in to the same trap in some regard - the rules are made to allow you to follow price along - as long as you implement them consistantly. And that worked good for him because he was a stop and reverse trader. He followed the rules and it made him and others alot of money. He did not have any other risk management rules. He didn't have a maximum amount he would be willing to loose, he just implemented the rules by the book. When you are first exposed to Andrews work, it almost seems mystical like how is that even possible that a three pivots will tell you with high probability where price is going, days weeks or months in advance. The problem is that all pivots aren't created equal and if you don't get the frame right, it will frustrate you. The learning process requires that you drawn on every pivot. Then you add in the concept that price movement is just the expresssion of energy- combined with Andrews rules and that how you implement it - by the book. But not every pivot on a daily chart is relative to the weekly or monthly formation. And that's where the trouble comes from. In these current contexts, if you change the context to the BIG C is in on both those charts, then that changes everything. But because I do not believe they are based on my estimating the amount of energy projected by price, I am forced to be vigilant of the potential risk. Theres two ways to get to that point, implement Andrews rules by the book, or draw, draw draw and draw some more to be able to get a reasonably close estimate of how much energy price has to work with.
Take care
Edited by NEIAAG 12/13/2025 11:56
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Corn and Beans - There's reasons to be vigilant
