| ks_cover_crop - 12/13/2025 10:15
On the corn chart if the summer low would have made a new low would that have been your C pivot?
Hi KS_cover_crop
No. It is however a C relative to the smaller pivots. But immediately when it formed I made a note on the chart about that low. Having been blessed numerous times getting caught in that type of formation thinking the low is in, I am immediately leary of it especailly giving the bigger context which is we are looking for C pivots in a formation that is decades in the making. So we are looking for the really BIG C. I didn't show it and thats easiest seen on a monthly. But IMHO thats the context we are working in like it or not. To me there's significant energy remaining in that formation and unfortunately failed swings have a very high probability of being retested. And now the pullback has expressed enough energy to add confidence to the likliehood that price returns to that test that failed swing. Generally what happens in this type of scenario is that buyers keep trying to buy it on dips, and this causes a rolling chop to form between the high of the pullback and the retest of the low. But the market is so wrong when price gets to the retest of the low and everyone is long by then because of their belief that its a higher low, that it accelerates and goes much further than people expect. That the price action I expect as we go through growing season on corn anyway. Hopefully I am wrong and price expends the energy horizontally and not vertically but as I have said before this scenario has the possibility of putting people out of business, it has enough on the chart to support it - and afterall - that's what should happen on a major C pivot decades in the making.
Take care |
Corn and Beans - There's reasons to be vigilant
