AgTalk Home
AgTalk Home
Search Forums | Classifieds | Skins | Language
You are logged in as a guest. ( logon | register )

Doesn't look good ,
View previous thread :: View next thread
   Forums List -> Market TalkMessage format
 
Clay SEIA
Posted 12/3/2025 22:04 (#11456250 - in reply to #11456003)
Subject: RE: Doesn't look good ,



Reality speaks - 12/3/2025 19:15 based upon their belly aching 100% thought that the profits in 2020-2022 were going to go on forever. This is just the normal down part of the cycle. Yes it sucks but anyone paying attention knew it was coming and took advantage of 2020-2022 to paydown debt and increase working capital (talk about a unicorn show me the farmer that did that) Most took on more equipment investment (increasing their overhead costs) and invested a lot in non earning assets (houses, Boats, cars, Pick ups, fancy over engineered shops etc.) Some added on more land debt increasing their Real Estate debt payments from something comfortable to something that squeezes the cash flow to buy that last over priced farm. The unknown is how long the downturn lasts, Will it be 5 years like that last one? (2014-2019). Will Uncle Sugar continue to spread cash around? Will China never ever come back as a customer? (this I doubt) Will MAHA prove a real link between seed oils and our metabolic health issues? (think of the effect on the Soybean market if Soybean oils were to be proven to be dangerous to your health?) Historically the cure for low prices has been low prices which stimulates more demand while supply contracts.


Cool story.  You don't know what it was like to live where 2020, 2021, 2022 were consecutive crop insurance claim growing seasons instead of windfall profits.   In 2022, we did buy a used 2017 model year Chevy Traverse with a salvage title.   So go ahead and throw me in with the fancy over-engineered shops, because we completely rebuilt the clean grain elevator and all associated augers on our combine in open air shop that summer.   

Top of the page Bottom of the page


Jump to forum :
Search this forum
Printer friendly version
E-mail a link to this thread

(Delete cookies)