Reality speaks - 12/3/2025 18:15

based upon their belly aching 100% thought that the profits in 2020-2022 were going to go on forever. This is just the normal down part of the cycle. Yes it sucks but anyone paying attention knew it was coming and took advantage of 2020-2022 to paydown debt and increase working capital (talk about a unicorn show me the farmer that did that) Most took on more equipment investment (increasing their overhead costs) and invested a lot in non earning assets (houses, Boats, cars, Pick ups, fancy over engineered shops etc.) Some added on more land debt increasing their Real Estate debt payments from something comfortable to something that squeezes the cash flow to buy that last over priced farm.

The unknown is how long the downturn lasts, Will it be 5 years like that last one? (2014-2019). Will Uncle Sugar continue to spread cash around? Will China never ever come back as a customer? (this I doubt) Will MAHA prove a real link between seed oils and our metabolic health issues? (think of the effect on the Soybean market if Soybean oils were to be proven to be dangerous to your health?)

Historically the cure for low prices has been low prices which stimulates more demand while supply contracts.