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North Central Indiana | What was the cost to roll and what were the futures gain you could’ve rolled into? Exactly. You could’ve made gains. You weren’t forced to sell you were forced to roll or sell. You would’ve made money rolling but faced risk and you didn’t want the risk. It is what it is. I stand by what I said, we don’t DESERVE (not entitled to) a check from the government. If anything my personal opinion is that we were lucky prices were as good as they were all summer, the market was already counting China in even if there weren’t sales at that point. You’re also missing a key part of the commodity market when saying based on historical carry out we should’ve been higher. South America grew more beans, which meant more availability, which means lower prices. And there aren’t any signs pointing toward flat line or lower production out of South America, which also is a drag on the market as there just isn’t much risk in the world market for soybeans. So I just don’t buy into the theory that I was screwed out of selling $13 soybeans all summer.
Commercial elevators are trading on margin at high volume, low margin. It’s the business model. If it’s a local elevator they bid under the processor they ship to because that’s their margin, they can also buy grain at a discount because all the grain with no farm storage has to go somewhere in the fall which is why there isn’t anywhere close to the same basis reward for fall delivery. And they get to capture the basis improvement that you gave up by selling to them. Of course they aren’t buying grain just for the goal of speculating in the market. They can do that without having to have any facilities and employees if they want to be speculators. I’m not a commercial elevator, so I accept certain risk. If all I was after was futures gains I would get hammered by fall basis and speculate. Instead I hold grain and play both the basis and the futures. There’s only one way to get both. You have to have the physical commodity, as soon as you don’t have the physical you can’t capture basis and futures appreciation. You can do it during the growing season and have your basis locked by the time you deliver in the fall, you can store and do it in the summer and the old crop market, but you can’t sell the physical in the fall and still keep playing both ends.
Edited by JRCS Farms 11/20/2025 10:41
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How much of this soybean rally was from the trade war?
