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North Central Indiana | There were opportunities in February, March, June and late August/Early September to lock in higher priced November bean contracts than the price was right before trade news ramped things up. You could’ve sold futures at any point but apparently didn’t. Even if you did you could’ve rolled forward and chose not to. You gambled and came up on the wrong side. You could’ve sold cash as soon as your sell point had a bid if you wanted to lock in your basis and hedged. That’s my point, everyone has wins and losses. You also just mentioned that you can roll to gain spread so you knew it was possible and didn’t. Thats why I don’t think we “deserve” a payment from the government. There were and are opportunities.
With bins you’re talking about protecting downside risk. You can do that, especially if you think things are trending down. If there’s any thought that things are trending up then having unpriced bushels is the way to capture all of that gain. Big companies do speculate, who do you think the speculators are? Big investment companies. Now if you’re betting against them then you’re probably in trouble, but if they’re not against you there isn’t a reason to price unless you hit a personal target or need cash flow | |
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How much of this soybean rally was from the trade war?
