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How much of this soybean rally was from the trade war?
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JRCS Farms
Posted 11/19/2025 21:03 (#11440516 - in reply to #11440463)
Subject: RE: How much of this soybean rally was from the trade war?


North Central Indiana
Shame on you if that’s how you want to look at it I guess. Although you also could’ve locked in better prices on the board early last spring as well. I’m not judging you, I’m just saying a bailout because you sold earlier doesn’t seem necessary.
Not sure how commercials relates to a farmer owned grain setup. The purpose is different. At least the places I sell to it would be. They aren’t looking to hold grain and resell, they buy grain and process it or feed it. They don’t have to worry about the board price as much as how their basis affects their margin. And they get to set their basis. My bins are intended to increase my income through basis appreciation and market appreciation. I can choose when to price but I definitely wouldn’t have spent the money on grain bins just to have it all priced in October. I’d buy paper and give up on the basis side. But you can’t have that formula both ways. You can sell futures and gain basis on hedges or you can take fall basis and gain on the futures. Bins allow both. It can also be risky obviously but there are seasonal patterns in both basis and futures that allows bins to capture both higher points
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