doathlon - 11/18/2025 19:24
IN555 - 11/18/2025 16:56
November beans closed at 10.4175 the friday before Bessett made the announcement of a trade agreement with China. January beans were trading 10.60 and made a high of 11.69 today. The week or so prior to the trade announcement was an aggressive 40 cent rally, was that leaked information? So in the last month beans have rallied $1.50. Is there anyone really arguing that rally has been based on China coming back into our soybean market for purchases? If so I would love to hear the excuse although it is likely nothing more than comedy. So that said we have already seen $1.50 and possibly more. That doesn't include basis that was softer in some locations based on the trade war. So what is a fair compensation for restitution for the trade war? The $2 a bu for beans sold in the last 9 months seems logical to me. Probably should be 30-50 cents on corn since bean prices were artificially low causing more corn acres which in turn hurt the prices for corn also. This is probably the only time I can think of the farmer actually deserves government money considering it was a known move by our government that would cause this pain in agriculture.
100% and we are still suffering from the basis hit. Now you've got farmers on here claiming they don't want a payment and all of a sudden the Trump administration has no plan for a tariff payment when they told the media for a month it was ready. I want my money. Do I need it this year, maybe not. But it’s my money and the government took it from me. It doesn't matter if soybeans rally to $15. Commodity prices are all lower as a result if this stupid trade war. What irritates me the most is you know China's leverage is soybeans. So why not over inflate crush domestically and take that leverage away? These people in government are morons.
How much of this soybean rally was from the trade war?
