|
Central Missouri | What years in the past 55 has soybean price traded like it has this year?
What is the defining construct of this years soybean price?
Answer: the annual price highs for the year were exceeded post august. More importantly during harvest.
So what other years from 1970 til now have posted new highs august forward.
What date did they break out
What date did they then make their high
How many months from break out to new high.
What percent increase above the breakout did they go to
Analyzing this may give you some good info to use to make decisions.
When you do this you will find 2 years where price spiked 1 or 2 days past the yearly high and then went down. Discard those because this market has already exceeded that.
There will be 2 years where price went up over 250%. Discard those unless you think 26 dollar beans are possible. Both of those years are when beans set a new higher trading range of price.
The remaining years should give you some good info on possibility for price in time to and % increase.
As always nothing works all the time in grain marketing. You have to find ways to put the odds in your favor of making good decisions.
As an end note it was analysis like this in the winter of 2019/20 that told me the possibilities of where soybean price could go in the next 18 months once the chinese and usa signed a trade agreement back then.
| |
|
Beans 2025
