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So let’s be honest about a China deal
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Coastal
Posted 10/13/2025 07:22 (#11398647 - in reply to #11398410)
Subject: RE: So let’s be honest about a China deal


doathlon - 10/12/2025 22:46

Coastal - 10/12/2025 15:41

If China does start buying US origin beans how much of an increase in board price are you expecting?


Looking at this weeks FOB prices out of different ports US beans aren’t that far off from their historical 5 yr price comparison between NOLA Brazil and the Argentines.


As of Monday the NOLA FOB was only $45/mt under the Brazil FOB and even with Argentina.


They go to $12.50 really quick


I dont think so. Im thinking a few sessions to get to $11.00 and then a 50% retracement to the mid $10 range. The current FOB differentials vs previous 5 years dont support much more that a $20/mt gain for the US if that. Looking at todays newest numbers we gain $5/mt on Brazil. ($440mt vs $400). Being that we are close to Argentine and Blacksea FOB price Id argue that Brazil would see bigger decrease in their prices than we raise.


IMHO the Chinese tariffs have resulted in inflating Brazils prices vs the World vs. deflating the US.
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