North Central US | davy crockett - 9/27/2025 08:19
in the past the argument against taking land out of production was that our foreign competitors would just take that vacuum in supply and take our market share. and that was probably true, but we are in a new ballgame "this time". brazil is increasing acres/hectares 4% next year like they always do and probably always will do.
why race to the bottom? i wouldn`t be opposed to at least looking at taking 10 million acres out of production, maybe not have juicy bids, with the farm economy as such perhaps $180/acre would get to 10 million acres for a 5 year term. there would have to be guard rails like tariffs on imported foreign commodities. that would raise domestic markets enough that there shouldn`t be need for ad hoc payments that everyone claims to hate.
if we are set up to absolutely have to export 25% of our soybeans, instead of pounding the pavement around the world for markets that will eventually be filled by south america, why tread through the cobra pit hoping that you won`t get bitten?
there would be objection to "paying farmers not to farm" but look at the alternatives. programs that "pay farmer to farm" adds to supply and cuts the farmer`s throat, to let nature take it`s course results in 1/3 or so bankrupt farmers.
it`s fall, we could get a crp expansion up for the 2026 crop, as details would come out, it would raise the value of the 2025 (not to mention what`s left of 2024 crop that partly still held). the tree hugger aspect of crp should have as much bi-partisan support as any policy can get these days. maybe have a haying and grazing option for a lesser payment to incentivize cow/calf expansion?
admittedly it`s at best a less bad answer to a problem that has only bad solutions.
Ever look across the road at the cows and their markets?
What is happening right now?
Yes they are worth something, but what is happening?
Cows "in production" are down drastically.
Imports are screaming higher, with more waiting at the gate to flood in.
Prices are staying about the same.
You grain farmers sit and talk and talk about how great taking land out of production will be yet are completely blind to seeing your twin across the road with cows doing the same and how well it is working-its not.
The same happened to manufacturing here.
There's a reason why I say to buy cows here: to save the US cattle industry from being pushed out by imports and to grow you grain farmers markets at home while also taking some land out of production, yet being able to quickly reverse to field if necessary. Yes more cows would lower the price, but I'd rather keep the market than not have one.
If they can haul a cow in a boat or airplane from Hawaii profitably and then do the same with cows from Australia, New Zealand, and elsewhere, both live and processed, and sell it for the same price as domestic here, what makes you think they won't do it with grain? They already do-profitably. Less production here means more imports, the price will do the same as the cattle market is doing right now. |
a case for expanding crp
