IN555 - 9/8/2025 20:05

So I'm not a fan of the approach to the trade war with china, I feel as ag we are going to lose out the most and overall gain very little. That said if I was taking the current approach and China was purposely targeting soybeans for political reasons instead of offering to compensate farmers for the soybeans they produced I would offer a program right now to pay for soybeans that you didn't produce. A cut of 10% off production to sit idle would cost less than 5 billion and would be paying farmers well with no inputs. I would announce it today for 2026 to drive up the cbot price. I would also announce that a 20% reduction was on the table for 2027 and 30% for 2028. Essentially eliminate exports and make China pay for soybeans.
Again I'm not in favor of the current path but if we are going down this way we need to play hard ball and not compensate for bushels produced and creating a longer term problem of growing US ending stocks. And yes I'm aware this would entice major expansion in SA but it that is already happening and not likely to slow so maybe playing hardball would be a way to get their attention. If you don't want our soybeans, fine we won't produce them.... let the market help the negotiation