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Odds of Harvest rally
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Clay SEIA
Posted 8/26/2025 09:26 (#11344143 - in reply to #11344050)
Subject: RE: Odds of Harvest rally



Dirtbiker - 8/26/2025 08:21 I have read some other advisor recommending this play. Would a guy be better off waiting until harvest puts in a low, usually around Columbus day?


Well, I'm not any more confident in my ability to pick the bottom than I am to pick the top.   But if the goal is to capture what we know, right now, is the under on crop insurance HPO- have a look at 2016.    Similarities would be a very large crop, on big acres, with an August WASDE report which also made a big upward adjustment to yields.   Spike down on the day of that report, and a bottom before many combines were rolling.    

 





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