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| Riding the sprayer today doing my darndest to raise the national average by making the second pass of fungicide and that gives me time to let my mind wander. It's not long and my mind starts thinking of the formation in corn and it's likely outcome. Generally speaking these end up being very dramatic. It's tough to predict price and it's a fools game to try and assign the event that eventually gets credit for "causing" it to happen, but it's entertaining and stimulates the mind so I do it anyway. The market makes everyone look like fools eventually and it wouldn't be my first time so nothing to loose.
So...my mind gets to thinking what could possibly be assigned to this type of dramatic finish on a multi-year swing? Bombshell tarriff news maybe? Possible sure. What about if the USDA overshoots and prints a really high yield number...like 189 and 55 next week? When I asked a few weeks ago if someone had ever come up with what yield what yield number fundamentally get us to 320, I did so for a reason. The USDA are simply pawns as anything else is are gonna print what effectively they have to print. I heard some of the private estimates this morning and they are in that 183 -185. That makes sense when you think about it because by and large these private firms clients are farmers. And because the normal seasonal patterns did not work this year, their clients are short sold. There is zero chance that those firms are gonna come out like StoneX because they do not want to have those conversations with their clients. So they will defer to the USDA and hope they get lucky and get bailed out with a low number. And if the USDA prints a high number, they can deflect it from their own shortcomings and blame the USDA. And because the USDA overshoots and corrects in January, they again have the ability to deflect and blame the USDA for their mistake in August. And farmers go on believing that the USDA screwed them over again.....It's neat and tidy, the USDA did what they had too and everyone goes on believing what they want to believe.
In the end , whatever happens, already happened, it just hasn't happened yet.
Take care | |
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Today's musings
